Predicting

A prediction is a statement on an absolute confidence level about the future (as contrasted with a forecasting, which is a probabilistic statement, on a relatively high confidence level, about the future). In practice the words are often used interchangeably.

A prediction based on past data can be sound if it is sensible to assume that the past and the future belong to the same statistical universe.

1. Prediction in traditional, reductionist natural science serves the role of validating hypotheses about invariant natural phenomena. In recent years, a new type of prediction has arisen in science, motivated in part by the needs of policy makers and the availability of new technologies. This new predictive science seeks to foretell the behaviour of complex environmental phenomena such as climate change, earthquakes, and extreme weather events. Significant intellectual and financial resources are now devoted to such efforts, in the expectation that predictions will guide policy making. These expectations, however, derive in part from confusion about the different roles of prediction in science and society. Policy makers lack a framework for assessing when and if prediction can help achieve policy goals.

1. Predicting-Retelling
2. Giving-Receiving

1. Projecting directions for economic distribution system
2. Predicting variability in crop yields
3. Predicting taxes
4. Predicting prices
5. Predicting natural disasters
6. Predicting monsoon failure
7. Predicting man-made disasters
8. Predicting key economic variables
9. Predicting judicial decisions
10. Predicting insect invasions
11. Predicting ground failures
12. Predicting governmental policy
13. Predicting geomagnetic disasters
14. Predicting future costs of present policies
15. Predicting environmental impact of short and long-term perturbations
16. Predicting earthquakes
17. Predicting climate changes
18. Predicting capitalization expenses
19. Predicting barriers to trade
20. Forecasting weather
21. Forecasting
22. Detecting sudden unpredicted meteor activity
23. Checking practical feasibility of implementing decisions
24. Articulating future vision
25. Anticipating environmental crises

1. Testing couple compatibility before marriage
2. Modelling

1. Uncertainty
2. Excessive confidence in prediction capacity

1. Inability
2. Disability
3. Ability

1. The Role of Models in Prediction for Decision
2. Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy