Scientist and politicians agreed in 1997 that the only hope for halting the seemingly inexorable shrinkage of the Aral Sea would involve drastic conservation. But because all the Central Asian countries require great amounts of water for irrigation and power, none is ready to take radical steps. Making a major cut in the amount of water taken from the feeding rivers would mean a big drop in agricultural production, widespread unemployment and tremendous social dislocation. "Maybe we could absorb 5 percent cut, but certainly not more than that." If these countries are going to change their ways and cut their water use, they need to industrialize or at least start growing other crops that don't need as much water. That is a huge project.