Rational methods would carefully weigh the important-known variables and make that decision which is most likely to achieve the desired end.
The mind evolved to select a few signals and then dream up a semblance, whatever enters our consciousness is overemphasized. It does not matter how the information enters, whether via a television programme, a newspaper story, a friend's conversation, a strong emotional reaction, a memory -- all is overemphasized. We ignore other, more compelling evidence, overemphasizing and overgeneralizing from the information close at hand to produce a rough-and-ready realty.