Political unrest

In the major oil-producing countries, for example, the probability of major political unrest in the 1990s could lead to significant shortages in world oil supply. The unrest in 1990 in 5 of the oil-producing countries suggest that in the context of a more fragile oil supply-demand equilibrium, the underlying socioeconomic tensions could quickly assume major importance for world oil supplies.

Mounting unrest in black African nations in 1990 signals an era of turmoil and worsening deprivation as the post-colonial political order collapses. There exists a widespread resentment against the corruption and tribalism of authoritarian rulers.